BY MICHAEL ROGERS | VICE PRESIDENT COMMUNICATIONS
Small Business Association of Michigan

In the midst of gloom and doom in Michigan – a dramatic jump in the
unemployment rate, skyrocketing gasoline prices and drooping auto sales – it’s
hard to believe there’s any ray of sunshine to be found in the small business
economy.

And yet, the latest Small Business Barometer survey surprisingly finds that
small business owners are a little more upbeat about the Michigan marketplace
than they were six months ago. There’s even a slight uptick in the number of
small employers who say they hired more workers over the past half year.
Of course, small business owners say there are still plenty of problems that
need to be addressed: decreasing sales and profits, poor access to credit, a lousy
business climate and a continuing slide in perceptions of the fairness of the tax
system.

The Barometer also flashes a giant red “warning” sign to state legislators: this
wave of the Barometer shows that only 6% of respondents give a positive rating
to the performance of the Legislature. On the other hand, there are opportunities
for real pro-small business candidates to make some inroads. The SBAM
Small BIZ PAC will release its list of endorsed candidates this fall.

Back to the top

In this edition: About the Barometer |Overview | Looking a recent business performance | Looking at the Future | A Taxing Situation

Looking a recent business performance

Monday, July 7, 2008 - MiBiz

Survey participants were asked if the number of employees on staff has increased,
decreased, or remained stable over the last quarter. Employment appears to be
inching slowly towards the historical average hiring level and becoming relatively more positive for small businesses in Michigan. Thirteen percent of those surveyed reported that they had hired more employees over the past quarter, a three percentage point increase over the past wave in January.

In a weak employment market, accessibility of qualified personnel is generally seen
as more positive than when the market is tight. As has been the case for eight of the past 10 waves, more than 50% of respondents give positive ratings on this indicator and fewer than 20% give negative ratings.

In a shift in the direction of the trend lines, positive ratings of the Michigan marketplace rose seven percentage points, reaching 40%. This is in line with levels from early 2007.

Whether this signifies the beginning of a long-term turnaround is unknown. This indicator will be tracked closely over future waves to provide an answer.

Small businesses may be reevaluating their perceptions of the market, but their ratings of the Michigan’s business environment are rather unfavorable, indicating that they do not feel the environment is conducive to their business growth.

Positive ratings fell to 6% this quarter, their lowest historical level for the Small Business Barometer. This compares with a peak of 75% less than a decade ago. Negative ratings rose to yet another sad record high (56%). This is more than three times the historical average of 17% and more than 10 times the levels seen for the second half of the 1990s.

The fraction of respondents rating the accessibility of credit positively fell to their lowest historical level (38%).

The small business ratings for credit have changed dramatically from late 2000, close to the peak of the economic boom, when 71% rated the credit market positively.

Back to the top

In this edition: About the Barometer |Overview | Looking a recent business performance | Looking at the Future | A Taxing Situation

Looking at the Future

Monday, July 7, 2008 - MiBiz

Looking ahead to the next twelve months, expectations of business performance remain well below their historical averages. It appears that while Michigan’s small businesses are more optimistic than recent history might justify, their outlook for the future is considerably less positive overall than at any time in the past 15 years.